Here is my reasoning:
1. Population of USA: 311,591,917 . Which we will round up to 312 million.
2. "During the 2008 presidential election, there were 132,645,504" people that voted. I'm going to round it up to 133 million people.
3. SNAP ( Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program ) / WIC recipients will likely vote for their master. If someone is "giving" you money, are you going to vote for someone that wants to take it away? I don't think so.
***3A. "As of August 2011, 45.8 million persons were participating in SNAP."
This is 14.679% of the US population.
***3B. "9.17 million people who received WIC benefits each month in FY 2010"
I believe that this number is even higher now, considering the current economic conditions.
This is 2.93% of the US population. Most of these recipients are children, but I'm sure that the parents will remember where their food is coming from.
"In 2010, the average SNAP client received a monthly benefit of $133.79, and the average household received $289.61 monthly."
This equals roughly around 17.6 % of the Total USA population. This number will carry over to the percent of people that vote. The voter apathy of the poor can be negated by liberals, if not more.
4. I will also make the assumption that registered voters will continue to vote along their party lines. Which leaves just the independent voter as the most courted group of voters.
"169 million registered - 86 million Democrat- 55 million Republican - 28 million others registered."
Even if Romney captures all 28 million Independent votes, he is still 3 million voters short, and this doesn't take into account ethnicity nor food stamp recipients in item #3
5. Cash, yes cash. We also need to look at who has how much.It is currently reported that Romney has $60 Million more than Obama.
6. The Liberal Media will pick and choose what news is "worthy" to report. Obama has the advantage.
7. The incumbent usually wins.
"There have been 31 presidential elections in which a sitting president has run for re-election. (This includes Franklin Roosevelt running for this 3rd and 4th terms) Of those 31, the incumbent won 21 times. That is a reelection rate of 67.7%"
8. The economy will also be a factor this year, like every election year. I think that the economy has been bad for so long, coupled with the American attention span, that any small good news will greatly benefit Obama. The price of gasoline and the pocketbook of Americans has always been closely related, and the recession/depression is keeping the price of oil down.
9. Point two about the economy. Around 80% of Mitt Romney's contributions are from large individual contributions and the top five campaign financiers are the banking/stock industry. The economic climate does not favor the silver-spoon-in-the-mouth candidates. Mitt will try to distance himself from the rich, but the harder he tries the more obvious it is.
|Small Indiv. Contrib. |
Large Indiv. Contrib.
|Total Individual contributions||$192,355,237|
10. Obama's campaign contributions are about 40% from small individual contributions. These people are invested in the Obama campaign. If you are invested, you're going to vote for them.
|Small Indiv Contrib. |
Large Indiv. Contrib.
|Total Individual contributions||$347,909,254|
"Keep Right On" prepping and getting ready!!!
Comments are always welcome.