Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Election Prediction

I've gone out on a limb a few times since I've started this blog, and I'm gonna go out on it again. I am predicting that President Obama will win a second term. I know that this is an unpopular position to take, especially in the blogging world.

Here is my reasoning:

1. Population of USA:  311,591,917 . Which we will round up to 312 million.

2. "During the 2008 presidential election, there were 132,645,504" people that voted. I'm going to round it up to 133 million people.



3. SNAP ( Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program ) / WIC recipients will likely vote for their master. If someone is "giving" you money, are you going to vote for someone that wants to take it away? I don't think so.

***3A. "As of August 2011, 45.8 million persons were participating in SNAP."
             This is 14.679% of the US population.
***3B.  "9.17 million people who received WIC benefits each month in FY 2010"
             I believe that this number is even higher now, considering the current economic conditions.
             This is 2.93% of the US population. Most of these recipients are children, but I'm sure that the parents will remember where their food is coming from.

"In 2010, the average SNAP client received a monthly benefit of $133.79, and the average household received $289.61 monthly."

This equals roughly around 17.6 % of the Total USA population. This number will carry over to the percent of  people that vote. The voter apathy of the poor can be negated by liberals, if not more.

4. I will also make the assumption that registered voters will continue to vote along their party lines. Which leaves just the independent voter as the most courted group of voters.

"169 million registered - 86 million Democrat- 55 million Republican - 28 million others registered."

Even if Romney captures all 28 million Independent votes, he is still 3 million voters short, and this doesn't take into account ethnicity nor food stamp recipients in item #3

5. Cash, yes cash. We also need to look at who has how much.It is currently reported that Romney has $60 Million more than  Obama.

6. The Liberal Media will pick and choose what news is "worthy" to report. Obama has the advantage.

7. The incumbent usually wins.

 "There have been 31 presidential elections in which a sitting president has run for re-election. (This includes Franklin Roosevelt running for this 3rd and 4th terms) Of those 31, the incumbent won 21 times. That is a reelection rate of 67.7%"

8. The economy will also be a factor this year, like every election year.  I think that the economy has been bad for so long, coupled with the American attention span, that any small good news will greatly benefit Obama. The price of gasoline and the pocketbook of Americans has always been closely related, and the recession/depression is keeping the price of oil down.

9. Point two about the economy. Around 80% of Mitt Romney's contributions are from large individual contributions and the top five campaign financiers are the banking/stock industry. The economic climate does not favor the silver-spoon-in-the-mouth candidates. Mitt will try to distance himself from the rich, but the harder he tries the more obvious it is.






legend
legend
Small Indiv. Contrib.
Large Indiv. Contrib.
$37,310,424
$156,626,329
Total Individual contributions$192,355,237

10. Obama's campaign contributions are about 40% from small individual contributions. These people are invested in the Obama campaign. If you are invested, you're going to vote for them.

legend
legend
Small Indiv Contrib.
Large Indiv. Contrib.
$137,921,783
$213,696,880
Total Individual contributions $347,909,254


This is just my unbiased opinion. In all likelihood, I will not be voting this year. The United States of America is really in trouble if this is the best two candidates that America has to offer.


"Keep Right On" prepping and getting ready!!!
Comments are always welcome.


SOURCES:
(http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=kf7tgg1uo9ude_&met_y=population&idim=country:US&dl=en&hl=en&q=population+of+us)
(http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_registered_voters_in_the_2008_Presidential_election)
(http://www.snaptohealth.org/snap/snap-frequently-asked-questions/#howmany)
http://www.fns.usda.gov/wic/faqs/faq.htm#3
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_registered_voters_in_the_2008_Presidential_election
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20110512141245AAUeDCz
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/index.php

7 comments:

  1. Wow! I'm impressed with all the facts! I thought I was alone in not wanting to vote this year. This will be the first time since I turned 18 that I won't be voting for our president. Politicians are all the same in my eyes :( Have a good evening ☺

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Kelly, it's a sad state of affairs in the USA and the world. Make hay while the sun is shining because I see a storm on the horizon.

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    2. I voted in every Presidential election since I was 18 and I don't intend to stop now. The last person I voted for who actually became (well, was reelected) president was Ronald Reagan. There was that one guy who came real close (4 to 5) in 2000. This year I definitely plan on writing in Ron Paul, unless of course they've already declared martial law by election day.

      Last time, I said our choice was between war followed by depression or depression followed by war. This time I say our choice is between someone who will get us into a war we cannot win versus someone who will fail to keep us out of a war we are bound to lose.

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  2. I realize you are probably right in your analysis so why not vote for Gary Johnson the Libertarian Candidate? It may be an empty gesture but I consider it a political statement. If enough people vote third party maybe it will be taken as a sign. Just a thought. Feel free to ignore me completely of course. good post anyway K. your friend, the rat

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  3. I have a Virgil Goode sticker on my truck which makes everyone mad. The republicans keep nominating big government closet liberals and expect everyone to fall in line. We have one big government political party in the US with republican and democrat wings, no real change will happen no matter who wins. So don't talk about a third party, we really need a second party.

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  4. The bumper sticker I really want I've never seen for sale:

    "Cthulu For President!
    Why Settle For The Lesser Evil?"

    (Oh yeah, and of course, "My Other Car Is A TARDIS"....)

    ReplyDelete